UK’s Technological Propensity Decline based on Patents Listed (The Revealed Technological Advantage Index- RTAI a descriptor identified by past HM Government advisers) |
In 1963 Britain commanded 4.9% of all patents issued in the largest economy in the world, the USA. By 1988 that had reduced to 3.48%, a drop of over 1% p.a. over the 25 years period. By 1996, a mere 8 years further in time, the drop had risen to an alarming 2.6% average p.a. Allowing a status quo for the past two years that represents a 50% drop in patents granted in the USA from the 1963 figures. Although the market is now larger, these figures clearly show a dramatic drop in patent granted activity which is our only Crystal ball gazing analysis that we can do with reliable inference into Britain’s future as a front-line economy and trading nation. As patents developed by industry on average take between 5>15 years to market, this decline will affect the UK’s propensity to trade globally around 2006 or before. If we project the running averages for the past 7 years for the trend we will see a further decline in patent activity. So much so that by even allowing an up-turn in patents granted by the USA, Britain by 2008 will only have the technological propensity of a mere 41% of that in 1963. Going on from this, in 2018 the UK’s technological advantage will have declined to 32% of it’s technological strength in 1963 and a mere 22% by 2028. This is an alarming state of affairs when one thinks that Britain once ruled the world in many of the world’s technological advances. Clearly the system is failing the people of the UK and it must be changed before it is far too late. Complacency again unfortunately will seal our fate in the 21st century if we do not acknowledge these facts and reverse our present ways of thinking.. |
The Growing Imbalance of the World’s Economic Consumption converting to Purchasing Power Parity(PPP) |
The latest statistics on the world’s overall geographical consumption of global products and services shows that Asia,even now, consumes more than the rest of the world put together. In 1968 the population of the world was around 3.5 billion people. This geographically was as follows: Asia - 2,100 million people, Europe, USA, Russia and Oceania - 980 million people, Africa - 235 million people and Latin America - 250 million people. If we project into the future and based on the last 50 years of global statistics we see that the trend is an increase in global economic consumption by Asia and a consequential decline throughout the rest of the world, especially over the last 20 years or so. Therefore by 2008 these converted projections indicate a 57/43 economic parity in favour of the Asian economies. Current population figures give the world’s population at around 5.9 billion people, an increase of some 69% over the past 30 years.The geographical spread is: Asia - 3,450 million people(58.Erope, USA, Russia and Oceania - 1,100 million people, Africa - 800 million people and Latin America - 530 million people. By 2018 the converted projections indicate a further growing imbalance with a 62/38 economic parity in favour of the Asian economies. By then the population of the world will be probably around 7.8 billion people. A 123% increase on 1968 and Asia’s population will have grown to around 4,700 million people(60.3%).By 2028 the projections show an economic parity of 66/34 in Asia’s favour and the world’s population will have swelled to around 8.3 billion people(in keeping with UN predictions also). Economic superiority will then clearly reside in Asia. Accordingly, supplies of fuel for energy, acquisition of food for a nation’s people and military power will drive the world order nearer conflict and possible catastrophy. WE HAVE THEREFORE NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO BUILD THE ORE or else face the unthinkable consequences of what complacency in the ‘West’ will inevitably bring ! |