Articles/World News

    The world is an ever changing organism which will either sustain itself or will become an un-inhabitable planet in future times. This part of the Newsletter will therefore look at major issues that will influence the destiny of humankind.

    Socio-economic issues:
    China and the East Asian economies are developing at a phenomenal rate compared to the industrialised economies of the West. Listed below are some key indicators( which are self evident)

    % change on year agolast 12 months $bn
    NationGDPIndustrial Productiontrade balanceforeign reserves
    latest12 months ago
    China +8.1 Q3 +11.0 Sep +35.1 Sep 127.8 91.7
    Indonesia+8.0 (1996)+7.1 Oct +9.4 Jul 19.3 Aug 15.5
    India +6.8 (1996)+9.2 Jul -5.6 Aug 26.8 18.3
    Malaysia +8.4 Q2 +13.2 Aug -0.9 Aug 26.1 Feb 23.1
    Taiwan +6.3 Q2 +9.0 Sep +8.9 Sep 87.8 Aug 86.1
    The Economist - November 1st 1997



    Estimated World Energy Consumption/Requirement by 2028
    (based on weighted average of known criteria and knowledge @ March 1998)







    (size of circle is proportional to size of energy demand)
    1. 1. Asia
    2. 2. UK,Europe including Russia, USA and Oceania
    3. 3. Rest of World
    		 The real estimated increase between 1960 and 1998 for the three geographical segments are:

    AsiaUK etc.Rest
    524%161%346%

    The predicted real increase between 1998 and 2028 for the three geographical segments are:

    AsiaUK etc.Rest
    302%74%264%


    Energy Perspectives:
    The world’s total energy demand is growing at a phenomenal rate. Between 1960 and 1998 the increased demand will have been 247% greater than that of the 1960 total. Between 1998 and 2028 it is predicted that the increased demand will be 173% greater than that of the present year and 847% greater than that of the 1960 total. This means that the compounded average year-on-year rate of the industrialised world’s increased energy demand from 1960>1998 will have been in the order of 15.6% and between 1998 and 2028 it is predicted that this ever increasing demand, year-on-year, will be a staggering 18.75%. This vast increase in requirement should ring alarm bells in all the ‘Western’ economies. With dwindling resources we are on a major path to conflict unless science and man can resolve a growing energy crisis.